Reasonable minds cannot seem to agree on the real reason why total U.S. album sales declined in 2013—1.5 billion units in 2013, down from 1.6 billion in 2012 and 2011. If this were ten years ago, the blame would have been placed squarely on pirates (re: peer-to-peer networks). Although piracy is no longer an industry buzzword, a recent MusicMetrics report indicates that it may still provide a plausible explanation for the sales decline—over 53 million music files were illegally downloaded through BitTorrent in 2013, representing about half of the difference in total sales between 2012 and 2013. Yet, today’s industry analysts suggest that the nearly 100 million-unit sales deficit in 2013 is the result of a consumer trend shifting to streaming and subscription services. This begs the question: does music piracy still matter?
Though piracy may have been a legitimate concern of the early 2000s, its clear that since LimeWire met its demise, the music industry’s top priority has shifted away from piracy and toward newer distribution services. Interesting, but perhaps expected, the same artists who continue to sell big and top the Billboard charts are also the same artists atop the list for the most pirated artists in 2013. Bruno Mars, Rihanna, Justin Timberlake, Kanye West, Eminem, Jay Z, and Drake are among the artists who appear on both the Top Most Download Artist List and the Nielson-Billboard 2013 U.S. Music Report:
- Bruno Mars holds the honor for being the most pirated musician of 2013; his music was illegally downloaded more than 5.8 million times. On the Billboard 2013 end of year charts, he was the #6 top selling artist of the year, with the #4 top selling album with track equivalent albums (2.3 million units sold) and the #9 top selling digital song “When I Was Your Man,” which sold 3.9 million units and was certified 4x Platinum.
- Justin Timberlake ended 2013 as the top selling artist, with the top selling album with track equivalent albums (The 20/20 Experience sold 3 million units sold), the top selling album (2.4 million units sold), top selling CD and top selling digital album. In 2013, Justin Timberlake’s music was downloaded 3.9 million times.
- Rihanna had the #10 top ten digital song with Stay (3.8 million units sold), and she was the second most pirated artist in 2013 with 5.4 million illegal downloads.
- Kanye West’s Yeezus, did not even chart on the end year Nielson-Billboard report, even though it was certified platinum earlier this month. Yeezus was illegally downloaded 3.2 million times.
- Drake, who was America’s most pirated artist in 2012 and had 2013’s #1 top streamed song with “Started From the Bottom” (84 million streams). He was illegally downloaded 3.1 million times in 2013.
- Even Queen Bey’s new album was not immune to pirates. Despite releasing her album with no marketing or singles (perhaps to avoid being leaked?) and gaining the #2 top selling digital album for 2013, almost a quarter million copies were pirated within the first week of its release.
With hardly a complaint from artist or record label, is it possible that we have reached piracy equilibrium? Or has big data demonstrated that using sales as a barometer to indicate the health of the music industry, does not really tell us much about the health of the music industry. For example, in 2011, overall U.S. music sales totaled 1,611,000,000 units and generated $4.51 billion in revenue. But in 2013, units sold increased 3% to 1,661,000,000 units, while revenue dropped 0.5% to $4.48 billion. In short, less units sold brought in more money.
Whatever the interpretation of the numbers, at either rate, it looks like piracy is off the hook for now.
